According to the assessment conducted by the United nations development programme and according to the study published at Lancet -the popular science journal India’s population is set to peak in the year 2047. At its peak India is to arise its population around 1.61 Billion and after hitting this peak population is set to decline .By the end of this century (Around 2100) India’s population is expected to fall and become around 1.03 Billion. The study also goes on to say that if India manages to achieve all its sustainable Development goal Targets , then its population could fall to as low as 929 Million But still India would have worlds largest population by the end of this century.
As per various population estimates India is set to overtake china very soon and it is expected to hit its peak by 2047 and here onward its population is set to decline and it will set to settle around 1 Billion at the end of this century.These estimates are based on the assumption that all woman will have access to contraception and sex education which will directly have an impact on reducing the current fertility rate .Total fertility rate is a Key metric indicator that is used in Human geography in order to project a countries population growth .TFR by definition means average number of children that a woman will have over her lifetime .If the TFR rate stands at 2.1 , the a country is set to witness a decline in population because a TFR of 2.1 helps in replenishing the population and hence this fertility level is referred as replacement level fertility .At TFR level of 2.1 the population stabilizes and its provides the replacing the deaths with newer births. So a TFR below 2.1 the population is set to decline whereas at TFR above 2.1 population is set to expand. Countries like North America,Europe and South east Asia TFR stands just at 1.75 which is way below the replacement level fertility so this regions are witnessing a decline in population.
A countries TFR is a factor of its development status , In developed countries where there is better access to contraception ,sex education and socio-economic factors is above average we find that TFR factor is always below 2.1 .Whereas in under developed and developing countries with a weak economic profile we always find that TFR rate is always above 2.1 .Same concept is applied within a county as well , TFR exposes the regional development divide .If you look within India the developed states that are located in the south and the west such as Maharashtra, Gujrat ,Tamil nadu and Karnataka, they register a lower TFR as compared to the states in North and east such as UP, Bihar , orissa etc .The study has also suggested that the global population will hit its peak in 2061 at around 9.73 Billion and from this peak the global population is set to fall around 8.79 Billion at the end of century.At the end of this century India is set to be the most populous country.
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